Monday, May 16, 2011

BOOST O2 | O2 BOOKS | > How to Make a Little Money in Digital Publishing

A Picture of a eBookImage via Wikipedia

By Marion Maneker 
The Wall Street Journal publishes some numbers from the few digital-only publishing houses and they are not comforting.
The big six book publishers are faced with fewer retail location now that Borders is closing stores and Barnes and Noble is devoting more selling space to merchandise and the Nook. But trying to run a publishing house on e-book sales alone is going to be tough.
All three houses Jeffrey Trachtenberg contacted claimed $1 million in sales this year or last. But Open Road, the start-up financed by $7 million of Jerry Kohlberg’s money, is already gasping for more. With a burn rate of nearly $5 million a year, it is no wonder that Kohlberg claims he’s closing another round of financing. Open Road really needs the money.
Looking at the numbers presented in the Journal’s article, you’ve got to wonder who’s dumb enough to put up cash here. Open Road is carrying huge expenses–19 employees, 13 of which are marketing in a medium with few natural marketing outlets (the bulk of the business takes place on Amazon)–but has only been able to muster $1 million in sales.
The article has Open Road claiming they’ll increase their sales to $10 million in 2011 but doesn’t offer much to justify that claim. The CEO says they sold 16,400 “downloads” one week last month but that only annualizes to a doubling of sales, not a 10-fold explosion. Let’s hope Kohlberg’s investors got a little more insight or, at least, better math.
Open Road claims 400,000 downloads since last May off 420 titles published. That’s fewer than 1,000 copies of each title sold if we’re averaging out the titles. So to get to 10 times the revenue, it would appear that Open Road is going to need 10 times the titles or 4200 new ebooks in the next year instead of the 2,000 they project in 2011.
Let’s put that number in perspective. Random House publishes somewhere around 2000 new titles a year in the US. The revenues they generate $1 billion in revenue worldwide. Even making some conservative assumptions, Open Road is hoping in their best-case scenario to generate 2% of the Random’s revenue (I’m lowballing the US number at $500m) from the same number of titles.
Yes. Digital publishing has a much lower cost of goods and cost of selling (though Open Road seems to be proving that wrong by spending $400,000 a month in overhead, god knows on what.) But the disparity between the two models suggest that being a digital publishing house is a non-starter.
It’s true that my calculations above are based upon average numbers. Publishing is a hit business. So there’s no such thing as an average title. Even publishing backlist titles as Open Road is mostly doing, the sales are going to be skewed to a few titles that sell well. A real big hit could make it easier for Open Road to open up the market and reach its target revenues.
In the old book business, you bought hits by buying big properties that came on the market. In the digital book business, you’ve got to hope that you find the next Amanda Hocking. How you predict that in advance, as Open Road is doing, is anybody’s guess.
The $10 million investors are being told that Open Road will make next year is probably not a random number. It’s just a product of what the company needs to try to keep a straight face. The way Open Road is paying authors, it would need to generate that much in sales just to yield the $5 million in needs to cover operating costs after the cost of sales. Open Road is paying authors 50% of what it receives from the publisher. If Open Road had $1 million in revenue over the past year, it kept only $500,000 against it’s $5m tab. Sales and margins will have to keep increasing to justify that kind of outlay.
Sadly, digital-only publishing isn’t a high margin business for publishers. With 400,000 downloads generating $1 million, Open Road is seeing a neat $2.5o per download. Since Open Road receives 70% of the selling price, the average title at Open Road is selling for less than $4.00. That means Open Road’s best sellers aren’t premium titles. The prestigious titles listed in the chart accompanying the story all sell for $7.50 or more.
For Open Road’s margins to expand, it will have to find the kind of must-read frontlist books that the traditional publishers are best at finding. Indeed, just last week Amanda Hocking decided that for the right up-front price, she would be happy to let St. Martin’s Press handle her publishing so she can concentrate on writing.
What Open Road hopes to concentrate upon to increase its revenue 10-fold in the coming year (and presumably some smaller multiple again the next year) remains a mystery.

The New York Times has always had a slightly odd relationship to the book trade. The joke in the publishing industry was that it took 800 jobs lost in a steel plant to make the front page of the paper of record but only 8 editors at Random House. One might easily assume that the editors of the paper, all of whom wrote and published book before ascending to the pilot’s chair, considered publishing to be something more than just a way to distribute stories.
At least, that’s the best way to view today’s editorial on the book business entitle Read On. (One looks twice at the headline before realizing there is indeed no exclamation point.) Although the short piece contains some bizarre howlers like this:
Books, as a cultural product, face important pressures. The pursuit of blockbusters by big publishers and retailers means that potential readers are exposed to a narrower set of titles.
It would appear that the New York Times is ignorant of the geometric explosion in the number of book titles published over the last decade and the increased number of distribution channels. Blockbuster sales are a product of more efficient distribution, not myopic gatekeepers or declining standards.
Once past that bit of priggishness, the editorial is a somewhat defiant claiming that books have fared better than music which, it notes, saw sales cut nearly in half in the last decade.
The resilience of the book business may be because of demographics. Like jazz, which is less prone to illicit downloads than hip-hop, books cater to older, less Internet-savvy customers. Publishers also avoided the recording industry’s mistake of wasting precious time suing customers and have rightly focused on promoting cheap and easy ways for them to download books legally.
That paragraph may be nonsensical but it does support a valid conclusion. Publishers have done a better job than record labels. The little-noted feature of the Kindle is the way that cloud publishing protects the rights of the publisher. Instead of sending copies of the book to the reader’s computer, the Kindle keeps the ebook within a secure environment.
That’s not the only bulwark defending books. Publishers deserve a lot of credit for standing toe-to-toe with Amazon over their predatory pricing scheme. Books ought to be cheaper because of the reduced cost of distribution. But Amazon has consistently promoted unrealistically low prices.
By introducing the agency model, publishers defended their ability to price their own product. Unfortunately, we’re only at the beginning of publishing’s descent into digital distribution. As Publisher’s Marketplace noted today, the Digital Book World Conference saw two financial analysts–Goldman Sachs analyst Matt Fassler and Susquehanna Financial Group’s Marianne Wold.–discussing the dominant book business:
Fassler believes that physical bookselling retail will continue to exist, albeit in downsized fashion. (But even in the height of the superstore era, he feels it was a better economic proposition for the customers than the operators.)
Wolk believes that Amazon makes little to no profit from ebooks as they try to maintain dominant market share, and doesn’t even think it’s a corporate goal to make much money from the sale of ebooks. She noted that “the consensus among Amazon watchers is that they assume Amazon will run roughshod over brick and mortar retailers” in the book business.
So, while e-books may have a promising future and the publishing industry defended itself against price deflation, the fate of the bookstore itself, is most likely going to be very different in a few years from what it is today.
Let’s make a bold prediction and say that independent bookstores will re-emerge as the center of the print book business. Barnes & Noble and Borders having long since gone out of business. print books will be sold at big box retailers for the hits and in small specialty shops for everything else. Selling books won’t be any easier as a business and we’ll never see the several thousand bookstores that once dotted the land again.

Backlist E-Books Find an Audience
by Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg
Wall Street Journal
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